Germany expects International Monetary Fund to lift global growth forecast

Scott Morrison will attend the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington on October 13-14

Scott Morrison will attend the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington on October 13-14

In the October update of its "World Economic Outlook" report, the International Monetary Fund said the Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), would still grow by 6.6 percent this year, "partly because of stronger-than-expected external demand from China and Europe".

The International Monetary Fund cut its South African economic growth forecast for this year on Tuesday, saying rising political uncertainty has dented consumer and business confidence.

"A closer look suggests that the global recovery may not be sustainable" and neither policy makers nor markets should be "lulled into complacency", warned Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist, in a note accompanying the forecast.

"Strong government spending and data revisions in India led to an upward revision of 2016 growth to 7.1 per cent (6.8 per cent in April), with upward revisions of about 0.2 percentage point, on average, for 2014 and 2015", it said. Forecasts for eurozone, Japan, China, emerging markets and Russian Federation were all revised upwards.

There's also a hint of concern about the administration of President Trump when the report says that "uncertainty about policy is more of a concern than usual reflecting, for example, difficult-to-predict United States regulatory and fiscal policies".

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Although the United Kingdom is an exception to the pattern of strengthening growth in the IMF's assessment, for this year and next the growth projections are stronger than two other G7 economies, Japan and Italy.

The report projected India to regain the top spot next year with a 7.4 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.

China edged slightly ahead to be the growth champion with a projected growth rate of 6.8%, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report.

The program, updated annually, saw growth at 5.5 percent between 2018 and 2020.

The Fund cautioned that euro zone growth would remain under pressure due to weak productivity, an ageing population and, in some countries, high debt.

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Strong global demand has also been a boon for the rest of Asia, where the fund forecasts sustained growth.

However, IMF expects India's economy to recover sharply in 2018 to grow at 7.4%, though 30 basis points lower than its earlier estimate in April.

"The welcome cyclical upturn after disappointing growth over the past few years provides an ideal window of opportunity to undertake critical reforms, thereby staving off downside risks and raising potential output and standards of living more broadly".

The growth forecast for this year was raised to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent and the outlook for next year was lifted to 3.7 percent from 3.6 percent.

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